# ABiS scorecard

Generated from the website's report files on 2026-11-11 (prices to 2026-11-11). Do not edit: enter results in the admin page.

## Rules

- **One source.** Every entry comes from a report's cover block on the website (`call`, `forecasts`, `ranges` in `content/reports/*.md`). Results are entered once, in that report (the admin page's Calendar does this). This file is regenerated on every build: do not edit it.
- **Never edit the original call, range or date.** Only the result fields are filled in later.
- **Event-study ranges** are scored automatically: the stock's return minus the S&P 500's, from the close before day 0 to the close N trading days after day 0. Result = the case whose range contains it (overlaps go to the case listed first: Downside, Base, Upside), otherwise Outside (above / below) or Between two cases.
- **Equity-research calls:** the 1–3 month direction is scored automatically on the stock vs the S&P 500 at 63 trading days (Upward bias: > +5%; Sideways: within ±5%; Downward bias: < −5%; "Sideways to lower": ≤ +5%). The intrinsic-value label is checked by hand at 12 months against the stated range. Forecast-register items are entered by hand as Hit / Partial / Miss / Can't verify.
- A result entered by hand always overrides an automatic one.
- **Review:** after every 10 scored entries, add two or three sentences under "Patterns" in `house/lessons.md`.

## Event-study ranges (excess return vs. S&P 500)

| ID | Report | Event (day 0) | Window | Downside | Base | Upside | Check after | Realized | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E:amzn-event-study-2026-11-10:0 | Amazon.com (AMZN) event study, 10 Nov 2026 | Amazon Q4 2026 results (2027-02-05) | d0–1 | −15% to −5% | −5% to +5% | +5% to +20% | 2027-02-08 (est.) |  |  |
| E:amzn-event-study-2026-11-10:1 | Amazon.com (AMZN) event study, 10 Nov 2026 | Amazon Q4 2026 results (2027-02-05) | d0–21 | −20% to −7% | −7% to +5% | +5% to +15% | 2027-03-09 (est.) |  |  |
| E:jpm-event-study-2026-11-10:0 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) event study, 10 Nov 2026 | JPM Q4 2026 results (2027-01-14) | d0–1 | −4% to −5% | −1.5% to +1.5% | +1% to +3% | 2027-01-15 (est.) |  |  |
| E:jpm-event-study-2026-11-10:1 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) event study, 10 Nov 2026 | JPM Q4 2026 results (2027-01-14) | d0–21 | −5% to −12% | −5% to +5% | +6% to +7% | 2027-02-16 (est.) |  |  |
| E:amd-event-study-2026-11-11:0 | AMD (AMD) event study, 11 Nov 2026 | AMD Q4 2026 results (2027-02-03) | d0–1 | −10% to −25% | −9% to +4% | +5% to +15% | 2027-02-04 (est.) |  |  |
| E:amd-event-study-2026-11-11:1 | AMD (AMD) event study, 11 Nov 2026 | AMD Q4 2026 results (2027-02-03) | d0–21 | −15% to −25% | −10% to +5% | +10% to +30% | 2027-03-05 (est.) |  |  |

## Equity-research calls

| ID | Report | Price at call | Intrinsic value | 1–3 month direction | Action | Direction check | Direction result | Value check | Value result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C:amzn-equity-research-2026-11-10 | Amazon.com (AMZN) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | $266.93 | Expensive ($110–190) | Sideways to lower, high volatility | Underweight (no new money) | 2027-02-11 (est.) |  | 2027-11-10 |  |
| C:jpm-equity-research-2026-11-10 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | $342.08 | Fair ($270–335) | Neutral to slightly lower | Watch | 2027-02-11 (est.) |  | 2027-11-10 |  |
| C:amd-equity-research-2026-11-11 | AMD (AMD) equity research, 11 Nov 2026 | $515.21 | Expensive ($190–$320) | Sideways to lower, very high volatility | Underweight, holders reduce | 2027-02-12 (est.) |  | 2027-11-11 |  |

## Forecast registers

| ID | Report | Forecast | Range / direction | Validate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F:amzn-equity-research-2026-11-10:0 | Amazon.com (AMZN) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | Q4 2026 net sales (guide $240–247B) | $242–248B | 2027-02-04 | Open |
| F:amzn-equity-research-2026-11-10:1 | Amazon.com (AMZN) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | Q4 2026 AWS revenue (Q4 2025 base $35.6B) | $49.5–51.5B, growth 39–45% | 2027-02-04 | Open |
| F:amzn-equity-research-2026-11-10:2 | Amazon.com (AMZN) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | Q4 2026 operating income (guide $28.5–33.5B) | $30–34B | 2027-02-04 | Open |
| F:amzn-equity-research-2026-11-10:3 | Amazon.com (AMZN) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | Fiscal 2026 cash capital spending (guide about $220B) | $215–225B | Feb 2027 | Open |
| F:amzn-equity-research-2026-11-10:4 | Amazon.com (AMZN) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | 2027 capital spending guide | At least $260B | 2027-02-04 | Open |
| F:amzn-equity-research-2026-11-10:5 | Amazon.com (AMZN) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | Free cash flow, twelve months to Q4 2026 (Amazon definition) | −$65B to −$45B | Feb 2027 | Open |
| F:amzn-equity-research-2026-11-10:6 | Amazon.com (AMZN) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | Long-term debt face value at 31 December 2026 | $178–190B | Feb 2027 | Open |
| F:amzn-equity-research-2026-11-10:7 | Amazon.com (AMZN) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | AMZN against the S&P 500, 63 trading days from 10 Nov 2026 | Sideways to lower (at most +5%) | 2027-02-10 | Open |
| F:jpm-equity-research-2026-11-10:0 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | Q4 2026 adjusted EPS | $5.70–6.20 | 2027-01-14 | Open |
| F:jpm-equity-research-2026-11-10:1 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | 2027 NII ex-Markets guide | $105–110B | 2027-01-14 | Open |
| F:jpm-equity-research-2026-11-10:2 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | 2027 expense guide | $111–116B | 2027-01-14 | Open |
| F:jpm-equity-research-2026-11-10:3 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | 2027 card net charge-off guide | 3.0–3.6% | 2027-01-14 | Open |
| F:jpm-equity-research-2026-11-10:4 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | CET1 standardized, Q4 2026 | 13.5–14.2% | 2027-01-14 | Open |
| F:jpm-equity-research-2026-11-10:5 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | JPM vs SPY, 63 sessions from 10 Nov 2026 | −8% to +4% | 2027-02-11 | Open |
| F:jpm-equity-research-2026-11-10:6 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) equity research, 10 Nov 2026 | Tangible book value per share, Q3 2027 | $119–123 | Oct 2027 | Open |
| F:amd-equity-research-2026-11-11:0 | AMD (AMD) equity research, 11 Nov 2026 | Q4 2026 revenue | $17.0–$17.8B | 2027-02-02 | Open |
| F:amd-equity-research-2026-11-11:1 | AMD (AMD) equity research, 11 Nov 2026 | Q4 2026 gross margin (quarterly, non-GAAP) | 54.5–56.0% | 2027-02-02 | Open |
| F:amd-equity-research-2026-11-11:2 | AMD (AMD) equity research, 11 Nov 2026 | Q1 2027 revenue guide midpoint | $18.5–$21.5B | 2027-02-02 | Open |
| F:amd-equity-research-2026-11-11:3 | AMD (AMD) equity research, 11 Nov 2026 | Q4 2026 inventory | $12.0–$14.5B | 2027-02-03 | Open |
| F:amd-equity-research-2026-11-11:4 | AMD (AMD) equity research, 11 Nov 2026 | Q4 2026 free cash flow margin | 5–12% | 2027-02-02 | Open |
| F:amd-equity-research-2026-11-11:5 | AMD (AMD) equity research, 11 Nov 2026 | FY2027 revenue | $80–$92B | 2028-02-01 | Open |
| F:amd-equity-research-2026-11-11:6 | AMD (AMD) equity research, 11 Nov 2026 | FY2027 free cash flow | $8–$14B | 2028-02-01 | Open |
| F:amd-equity-research-2026-11-11:7 | AMD (AMD) equity research, 11 Nov 2026 | AMD vs S&P 500, 63 trading days | Sideways to lower (at most +5%) | 2027-02-12 | Open |
| F:amd-equity-research-2026-11-11:8 | AMD (AMD) equity research, 11 Nov 2026 | Q4 warrant remeasurement | Gain if AMD closes below $630.63 on 24 Dec 2026, other inputs unchanged | 2027-02-02 | Open |

Scored so far: 0 of 36 entries.