Amazon.com (AMZN · Nasdaq)
Amazon shares have lagged the S&P 500 after four of eight reports, with two-session moves from −9.4% to +18.4% depending on whether cloud growth accelerated. The next report, expected 4 February 2027, comes with trailing free cash flow at −$42.4 billion.
How it moved against SPY after each past event
Each dot is one past event: its excess return over SPY (stock minus SPY) from the close before the event. Left of zero means it lagged. Moves beyond ±60% are drawn at the edge. Hover a dot for the exact value; median marked.
What history says
- Amazon's reaction has been large when AWS growth or the capital spending plan surprised and small otherwise. Four of eight d0–1 moves exceeded 8% in size (−9.4%, −8.7%, +13.5%, +18.4% vs SPY) and four stayed within 3%. The two largest rises came with AWS growth of 20.2% and 37%.
- Alphabet's 12.6% decline on 29 October took the capital spending shock before Amazon reported, and Amazon's own report drew a small reaction. Amazon fell 4.2% that day, then gained 3.0% vs SPY over d0–1 of its report. From the 27 October close to 9 November it rose 5.5% while the S&P 500 fell 2.2%.
- Peers that raised capital spending without a matching acceleration fell between 10% and 14% against the S&P 500. Meta, Oracle, Microsoft and Alphabet had a median d0–1 of −12.3% vs SPY (thin base rate of four). Amazon's own February 2026 report, with a $200B plan, fell 8.7%.
- Announcements of Amazon's investments in OpenAI and Anthropic moved the shares by no more than 3.1% against the S&P 500. Over d0–1 the three announcements gave +0.6% to +3.1% vs SPY (thin base rate), so the market has responded more to reported AWS growth and free cash flow.
Scenario range, AMZN vs SPY
Downside · d0–1 −15% to −5% · d0–21 −20% to −7%AWS growth below 39%, or higher 2027 capital spending without matching backlog or growth. Closest: Jul 2025, Feb 2026.
Base · d0–1 −5% to +5% · d0–21 −7% to +5%AWS growth near 39% and 2027 spending in line with “meaningfully more”. Closest: Feb 2025, May 2025, Apr 2026, Oct 2026.
Upside · d0–1 +5% to +20% · d0–21 +5% to +15%AWS growth above 40% and a Q1 2027 guide implying faster profit growth. Closest: Jul 2026, Oct 2025 (contaminated).
Full report
Summary
Key takeaways: Amazon.com is expected to report Q4 2026 results on 4 February 2027 after the close, and that report is the catalyst that matters most. Across its last eight reports the shares lagged the S&P 500 over the first two sessions four times and led it four times, with a median excess return of −0.7% and a range from −9.4% to +18.4%, so the history describes two distinct outcomes and has no typical one. The second catalyst is the capital spending and cash-flow burden that the large cloud providers share, which cost Alphabet 12.6% on 29 October. The biggest caveat is that eight reports is a small sample and that one of them (October 2025) is contaminated by a separate announcement.
This study rests on a catalyst scan and on the price history itself, with prices through the close of 9 November 2026. Our companion equity research report of the same date, linked from this page, covers valuation. Excess return is the stock's move minus the S&P 500's, and d0–1 runs from the close before the first session that trades on the news (day 0) to the close of the following session. Direction has followed the surprise in growth at Amazon Web Services (AWS, the cloud unit) and in capital spending. The two largest rises (+13.5% and +18.4% against the S&P 500) came with AWS growth of 20.2% and 37%, while the two falls near −9% came with AWS growth of 17.5% and a $200 billion capital spending plan. Our view: the market absorbed the capital spending shock before Amazon reported in October, because Amazon fell 4.2% on the day Alphabet fell 12.6%, and from the close of 27 October to the close of 9 November Amazon rose 5.5% while the S&P 500 fell 2.2%.
The catalysts are tiered below by how much each could move the stock.
| Catalyst | Date/status | Mechanism | Materiality | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 results | 4 Feb 2027, after close (unconfirmed) | AWS growth against 39% in Q3, 2027 capital spending, Q1 2027 guidance | High | Primary |
| Hyperscaler capital spending and cash-flow reports | Alphabet reported 28 Oct 2026; later dates not obtained | Read-across to Amazon's own spending and free cash flow | High | Secondary |
| AI-lab investment and contract announcements | OpenAI 27 Feb 2026; Anthropic 20 Apr 2026 | AWS backlog; investor that is also a customer | Medium | Secondary |
| FTC antitrust trial | 29 Mar 2027 (bench trial) | Legal liability and remedies | Medium | Other |
| Bezos share-sale plan | Plan runs to 26 Feb 2027 | Supply of shares | Low | Other |
| US politics and AI regulation | After the 3 Nov 2026 midterms | Data-center permitting and AI rules | Medium | Other |
Source: Robinhood earnings feed (date unverified); Wall Street Horizon (inferred date); Amazon Q3 2026 release; MLex; ABiS.
What the news is saying
Amazon moved more than 3% against its sector fund on three sessions since 19 October, and each had a market-wide or peer cause rather than an Amazon announcement. The table lists those sessions and the others that matter, with the stock's close-to-close move, its excess return against the S&P 500 (xSPY) and against the consumer discretionary fund XLY (xXLY).
| Date | News and stated cause | AMZN | xSPY | xXLY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | AI-related stocks rebounded after a week-long decline; one aggregator cites a Morgan Stanley view change, which we could not confirm | +5.0% | +4.6% | +3.2% |
| 2026-10-22 | Broad retreat from AI and mega-cap stocks (Meta −7.0%), with no Amazon-specific news found | −4.6% | −3.4% | −4.1% |
| 2026-10-29 | Alphabet (reported 28 Oct, after close) fell 12.6% on capital spending and cash-flow concerns | −4.2% | −3.9% | −5.0% |
| 2026-10-30 | First session after Amazon's Q3 2026 report; after-hours coverage had cited a decline of about 7% | −1.4% | +0.4% | −0.7% |
| 2026-11-04 | Post-election rebound led by large technology stocks (Microsoft +6.7%) | +6.1% | +4.5% | +1.9% |
| 2026-11-05 | Technology selloff on fears of tighter AI regulation or paused data-center construction after Democrats won Congress; rising yields | −2.2% | +2.2% | +1.6% |
| 2026-11-09 | Large technology stocks rebounded; Benzinga cites investors favoring hyperscalers, and a report of a JPMorgan list addition was not confirmed | +2.9% | +0.6% | 0.0% |
Source: ABiS, Yahoo Finance closes; Motley Fool (5 Nov 2026); Benzinga (9 Nov 2026); Gotrade; TickerSpark; aiweekly.co.
We measured the follow-through session by session after the Alphabet shock. Between the close of 27 October and the close of 9 November, Amazon rose 5.5%, the S&P 500 fell 2.2%, XLY rose 4.8%, and Alphabet was 10.1% lower, so Amazon recovered the 4.2% loss of 29 October and its own report added little. The S&P 500 itself moved 4.4% down on 5 November and 2.4% up on 9 November, which makes any window that spans election week harder to read.
Several stories moved no single session but bear on the Q4 report. Amazon sold $25 billion of bonds in July 2026 and reportedly told underwriters it was finished issuing debt for the year (Investing.com), and Moody's affirmed its A1 rating with a stable outlook in February 2026 while expecting external funding to be needed. A Rule 10b5-1 plan allows Jeff Bezos to sell up to 15 million shares through 26 February 2027, about $4 billion at the 9 November close. Judge John Chun declined in October 2026 to move the FTC trial from 29 March 2027 (MLex), and the FTC and 22 state attorneys general filed a separate complaint in August 2026 over reserve prices in sponsored advertising auctions (Amazon Form 10-Q). Amazon also announced a Prime benefit with Uber Eats on 5 November, which did not hold the early gains that day. In our searches we found no short-seller report on Amazon, and the leadership news concerned departures of AI executives (Rohit Prasad in December 2025 and David Luan in February 2026) that moved no session we could identify.
Q4 2026 results
Key takeaways: Amazon's reaction over the first two sessions to its last eight reports has been bimodal, with four excess returns larger than 8% in size and four within 3%, and a median of −0.7%. The direction followed AWS growth and the capital spending plan in every case we could explain, and earnings per share appeared to matter little because reported earnings include large gains on Amazon's Anthropic stake. After the 29 October read-across from Alphabet, the stock enters this report 6.0% below its 52-week high, with trailing free cash flow of −$42.4 billion. The sample is eight events and describes history; it does not give odds.
What's happening now
Amazon is expected to report Q4 2026 results on Thursday 4 February 2027 after the close; Robinhood lists the date as unverified and Wall Street Horizon as inferred, so we assume day 0 is 5 February 2027 and flag it for change once the company confirms. In its Q3 2026 release of 29 October, Amazon guided Q4 net sales to $240–247 billion (12% to 16% growth) and operating income to $28.5–33.5 billion, against $25.0 billion a year earlier. CEO Andy Jassy guided AWS growth above 40% in 2027 and 2028, kept the 2026 capital spending plan at about $220 billion, and said spending would be meaningfully higher in 2027. We could not obtain consensus for Q4 revenue, AWS growth or 2027 capital spending, the options-implied move, or short interest.
The Q3 2026 report itself had mixed content. AWS sales rose 39% to $46.0 billion, the fastest growth in nearly five years, and AWS operating income was $17.8 billion against $11.4 billion a year earlier. Net sales of $201.9 billion rose 12%, and coverage described both sales and diluted EPS of $1.89 (against an estimate near $1.97) as short of expectations. Trailing free cash flow was −$42.4 billion against +$14.8 billion a year earlier, because purchases of property and equipment rose $94.8 billion.
AWS growth has accelerated in each of the last five quarters, from 17.5% in Q2 2025 to 20.2%, 24%, 28%, 37% and 39% in Q3 2026. The July 2026 reaction of +18.4% against the S&P 500 followed the largest quarterly step-up in that series (9 percentage points), while the −9.4% reaction in July 2025 came when growth of 17.5% trailed Azure's 39% and Google Cloud's 32%. Reported earnings are a weak guide: net income of $62.6 billion in Q2 2026 included a $53.4 billion non-cash gain mainly from the Anthropic stake, and EPS of $5.75 compared with an estimate of $1.82.
Historical analogs
All eight reports since February 2025 are in the table. Each was released after the close, so day 0 is the next session. Reports carry the news of peer reports made the same week, which is part of how this stock trades.
Four of the eight d0–1 excess returns against the S&P 500 exceeded 8% in size and the other four stayed within 3%, so the reactions fall into a large-move group and a quiet group.
| Analog | Day 0 | Pre-event drift (−5 to −1) | d0–1 raw / xSPY / xSector | d0–21 raw / xSPY / xSector | d0–63 xSPY | Source/method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 · Q4 2024 (weak Q1 guide, $100B capital spending plan) | 2025-02-07 | +1.8% | −2.4% / −2.1% / −0.8% | −17.7% / −9.4% / −3.0% | −12.5% | Fortune, 6 Feb 2025; RTE |
| May 2025 · Q1 2025 (Q2 guide below estimate; tariff-truce rally in window) | 2025-05-02 | +2.0% | −2.0% / −2.9% / −2.5% | +8.2% / +1.4% / −0.5% | −2.1% | Business Wire; Nasdaq |
| Jul 2025 · Q2 2025 (AWS growth of 17.5% behind Azure and Google Cloud) | 2025-08-01 | +0.8% | −9.6% / −9.4% / −8.3% | −3.7% / −5.0% / −7.6% | −12.7% | Fortune, 31 Jul 2025; TipRanks |
| Oct 2025 · Q3 2025 (AWS growth of 20.2%; contaminated by OpenAI deal) | 2025-10-31 | +0.8% | +14.0% / +13.5% / +10.4% | +5.2% / +4.9% / +4.0% | +5.3% | Euronews, 31 Oct 2025; Motley Fool |
| Feb 2026 · Q4 2025 ($200B capital spending plan) | 2026-02-06 | −7.9% | −6.3% / −8.7% / −6.3% | −3.8% / −3.7% / −1.1% | +13.3% | Yahoo Finance, Feb 2026 |
| Apr 2026 · Q1 2026 (AWS growth of 28%) | 2026-04-30 | +3.0% | +2.0% / +0.7% / +0.5% | −0.7% / −7.3% / −1.8% | −2.0% | MarketBeat transcript |
| Jul 2026 · Q2 2026 (AWS growth of 37%) | 2026-07-31 | +0.8% | +20.6% / +18.4% / +15.4% | +10.3% / +6.9% / +6.6% | −0.5% | Shelf Awareness; fourweekmba |
| Oct 2026 · Q3 2026 (AWS growth of 39%, after Alphabet's decline) | 2026-10-30 | −2.6% | +0.8% / +3.0% / −0.9% | n/a | Amazon release, 29 Oct 2026 |
Source: ABiS, adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance; the Source/method column names the document used for the date. xSector is against XLY.
Reaction distribution
The distribution is split almost evenly between gains and losses at d0–1, and it leans negative by d0–21.
| Window | n | Up / down (excess) | Median xSPY | Range xSPY | Median abnormal (beta-adj.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| d0–1 | 8 | 4 / 4 | −0.7% | −9.4% to +18.4% | −1.0% |
| d0–5 | 8 | 5 / 3 | +0.4% | −11.3% to +12.3% | −0.5% |
| d0–21 | 7 | 3 / 4 | −3.7% | −9.4% to +6.9% | −3.7% |
| d0–63 | 7 | 2 / 5 | −2.0% | −12.7% to +13.3% | −4.8% |
Source: ABiS, adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance. Beta from about 250 prior sessions (1.3 to 1.6). Eight events is a small sample.
Two windows are contaminated. The d0–1 window for October 2025 includes the OpenAI contract announcement of 3 November 2025 (+4.0% that day), and without it the median d0–1 excess return is −2.1% (seven events, three up and four down). The d0–21 window for May 2025 includes a +8.1% session on 12 May 2025 when the S&P 500 rose 3.3% on the US–China tariff truce, and without that event the median d0–21 excess return is −4.4% (six events, two up and four down). The d0–5 figure for October 2026 reflects election-week swings in the S&P 500, and every d0–63 window runs almost to the next report, so it measures drift over the quarter and not the reaction to the print.
Why each analog moved the way it did
- February 2025 (Q4 2024 results). Revenue of $187.8 billion was slightly above the $187.3 billion consensus, but Q1 2025 operating income was guided to $14–18 billion against an average estimate of $18.35 billion, and management said 2025 capital spending would be about $100 billion, mostly for AWS AI (Fortune; RTE). The shares fell 4.1% on 7 February while the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. The stock lagged by 9.4% over d0–21, and we did not obtain a cause for the weakness in the following weeks.
- May 2025 (Q1 2025 results). AWS grew 17% to $29.3 billion, and Q2 operating income was guided to $13.0–17.5 billion against an LSEG average of $17.7 billion (Nasdaq; Business Wire). The shares were flat on day 0 (−0.1%) while the S&P 500 rose 1.5%. The d0–21 window is contaminated by the 12 May tariff-truce rally, when Amazon rose 8.1% and Barron's noted that Amazon sourced about 30% of its first-party merchandise from China.
- July 2025 (Q2 2025 results). AWS grew 17.5% to $30.9 billion while Azure grew 39% and Google Cloud 32%, and Jefferies called the growth "disappointing given big momentum at Azure and GCP" (Fortune; TipRanks). The shares fell 8.3% on 1 August against a 1.6% decline in the S&P 500, and the lag persisted, with −5.0% at d0–21 and −12.7% at d0–63.
- October 2025 (Q3 2025 results; contaminated). AWS re-accelerated to 20.2%, the fastest growth since 2022, with revenue of $33 billion (Euronews; YourStory). Amazon rose 9.6% on 31 October, and the OpenAI agreement worth $38 billion over seven years added 4.0% on 3 November, so the +13.5% d0–1 figure combines the two (Motley Fool). The gains held, with +4.9% at d0–21 and +5.3% at d0–63.
- February 2026 (Q4 2025 results). Amazon guided 2026 capital spending to about $200 billion, more than 50% above 2025's $131.8 billion, while 2025 free cash flow fell to $11.2 billion from $38.2 billion, and AWS grew 24% (Yahoo Finance; Fintool). The shares fell 5.6% on 6 February against a 1.9% gain in the S&P 500, after falling 7.9% in the five sessions before the report (cause not obtained). Moody's moved its outlook to stable in the same month, citing the spending (LetsDataScience), and the stock recovered to +13.3% against the S&P 500 at d0–63.
- April 2026 (Q1 2026 results). AWS growth accelerated to 28% and the backlog reached $364 billion before a recent Anthropic commitment of more than $100 billion (MarketBeat call transcript). Early coverage cited after-hours declines of 3% to 6% on worries about the $200 billion plan, while the first session closed up 0.8%, the same day Alphabet rose 10.0% and Meta fell 8.6% on their own reports. The stock lagged by 7.3% at d0–21 (cause not obtained).
- July 2026 (Q2 2026 results). AWS grew 37% to $42.2 billion, the fastest in 18 quarters, and net sales rose 20% to $200.6 billion, while the 2026 capital spending plan rose to about $220 billion (Shelf Awareness; fourweekmba). The shares rose 15.3% on 31 July, the largest one-day gain in more than 14 years according to coverage, and another 4.6% on 3 August as the market value passed $3 trillion (roic.ai). The gain held at +6.9% against the S&P 500 over d0–21.
- October 2026 (Q3 2026 results). AWS growth of 39% and a record 13.9% operating margin were offset by EPS and revenue below estimates, a Q4 revenue guide below the consensus midpoint, and trailing free cash flow of −$42.4 billion (Amazon release; Zacks). The shares closed 1.4% lower on 30 October, though the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, and recovered 2.2% on 2 November, for +3.0% against the S&P 500 over d0–1. The larger decline had come a day earlier, when Alphabet's report took Amazon down 4.2%.
How today compares
Amazon enters this report after a price recovery and with a heavier cash burden than at the February 2026 report, when trailing free cash flow was still positive at $11.2 billion.
| Factor | Today | Past reports |
|---|---|---|
| Expectations and surprise potential | Q4 guide of $240–247B in sales; AWS guided above 40% for 2027; consensus not obtained | AWS growth rose in each of the last five quarters; large moves followed a surprise in either direction |
| Valuation and run-up | $266.93, 6.0% below the 52-week high close of $284.02 (3 Aug 2026), +15.6% in 2026 | Drawdown from the 52-week high before the reports ranged from −21.4% to −0.4% (median −10.1%) |
| Positioning | Short interest and options-implied move not obtained; Bezos plan covers up to 15M shares | Not obtained for past reports |
| Macro backdrop | Democrats control Congress; S&P 500 moved −4.4% and +2.4% in the last week; yields rising | May 2025 tariff truce and July 2025 market weakness shared the d0–1 or d0–21 windows |
| Company stage | Trailing free cash flow −$42.4B; 2026 capital spending about $220B; funded with bonds | The first report with a $200B plan was February 2026 (−8.7% over d0–1) |
Source: Amazon Q3 2026 release; Motley Fool; MLex; ABiS, adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance.
Today differs from past reports in two ways. Amazon has already traded through a peer-driven capital spending shock and recovered, whereas in February 2026 the shock arrived with its own report and cost 8.7% against the S&P 500 over d0–1. In addition, the report follows two quarters of AWS growth at 37% and 39%, so the bar for a positive reaction is higher than in July 2025 or April 2026. Our view: a report that holds AWS growth near 39% and guides 2027 capital spending in line with "meaningfully more" would most likely resemble the four quiet reports (−2.9% to +3.0%), and the large moves in either direction would need a clear change in AWS growth or in the capital spending plan.
Scenario range
These ranges are scenarios and not forecasts. Each is the excess return against the S&P 500 and is conditional on what the report contains.
| Case | d0–1 | d0–21 | What it takes | Closest analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | −15% to −5% | −20% to −7% | If AWS growth slows below 39%, or Amazon raises 2027 capital spending without a matching rise in backlog or growth, we would expect a decline of this size | Jul 2025, Feb 2026; peer reports of −10% to −14% |
| Base | −5% to +5% | −7% to +5% | If AWS growth holds near 39% and 2027 capital spending lands in line with management's "meaningfully more", we would expect a quiet reaction | Feb 2025, May 2025, Apr 2026, Oct 2026 |
| Upside | +5% to +20% | +5% to +15% | If AWS growth rises above 40% and the Q1 2027 guide implies faster profit growth, we would expect a gain like those of the two largest rises | Jul 2026, Oct 2025 (contaminated) |
Source: ABiS.
The 4 February date is unconfirmed, and the window for d0–21 would include the end of the Bezos plan on 26 February. The d0–63 window would also include the FTC trial start on 29 March and probably the Q1 2027 report.
Hyperscaler capital spending and cash-flow reports
Four reports from other large cloud providers since October 2025 each drew a decline of 10% to 14% against the S&P 500 over two sessions, and all four put capital spending or free cash flow at the center of the reaction. Amazon's own February 2026 report fits the same pattern and is in the primary set. The base rate is thin, and the four are all declines, so the sample has a selection problem that the Amazon primary set partly corrects: Amazon raised capital spending in July 2026 and the shares rose.
| Analog | Day 0 | d0–1 raw / xSPY / xSector | d0–21 raw / xSPY / xSector | Source/method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 · Meta Q3 2025 (capital spending and expense guide) | 2025-10-30 | −13.7% / −13.0% / −12.5% | −14.7% / −13.7% / −13.5% | Sherwood; eWeek |
| Dec 2025 · Oracle FQ2 2026 (capital spending, negative free cash flow) | 2025-12-11 | −14.8% / −14.0% / −12.9% | −9.1% / −10.3% / −2.9% | 247WallSt; INDmoney |
| Jan 2026 · Microsoft FQ2 2026 (capital spending, Azure slowing) | 2026-01-29 | −10.7% / −10.2% / −7.1% | −17.1% / −15.8% / −10.6% | Fortune; Motley Fool |
| Oct 2026 · Alphabet Q3 2026 (capital spending, 2027 signal) | 2026-10-29 | −13.9% / −11.7% / −10.7% | n/a | aiweekly.co; XTB |
Source: ABiS, adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance. Sector funds: XLC for Meta and Alphabet, IGV for Oracle, XLK for Microsoft. The October 2026 d0–21 window has not finished.
- October 2025, Meta. Capital spending guidance rose to $70–72 billion and management said 2026 expenses would grow significantly faster, alongside a $15.9 billion tax charge (Sherwood; eWeek).
- December 2025, Oracle. Quarterly capital spending of about $12 billion compared with $8.25 billion expected, the annual guide rose to about $50 billion from $35 billion, and free cash flow was about −$10 billion (247WallSt; INDmoney).
- January 2026, Microsoft. Capital spending of $37.5 billion exceeded the $36.2 billion expected while Azure growth of about 39% slowed and was guided to 37–38% (Fortune; Motley Fool).
- October 2026, Alphabet. Quarterly capital spending of $51.4 billion, a 2026 guide raised to $195–205 billion and a signal that 2027 spending would exceed $300 billion accompanied Google Cloud revenue of $30.7 billion, and coverage cited weaker EPS and cash flow (aiweekly.co; XTB).
The four declines were similar in size, with a median of −12.3% against the S&P 500 over d0–1 and −13.7% over d0–21 across the three finished windows.
| Window | n | Up / down (excess) | Median xSPY | Range xSPY | Median abnormal (beta-adj.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| d0–1 | 4 — thin base rate | 0 / 4 | −12.3% | −14.0% to −10.2% | −11.8% |
| d0–21 | 3 — thin base rate | 0 / 3 | −13.7% | −15.8% to −10.3% | −13.3% |
Source: ABiS, adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance. Four events is a thin base rate.
Amazon today resembles these four in its trailing free cash flow of −$42.4 billion and its guidance of higher 2027 spending, and it differs in having reported AWS growth of 39%. If Amazon raises its 2027 capital spending plan sharply without a matching acceleration in AWS, we would expect a decline closer to its February 2026 move (−8.7%) than to the 10% to 14% range of the peers, because we think the market priced part of the 2027 increase during the 29 October read-across.
AI-lab investment and contract announcements
Three announcements of Amazon's investments in OpenAI and Anthropic, each paired with a multi-year commitment to buy AWS capacity, moved the shares by between +0.6% and +3.1% against the S&P 500 over two sessions, which is small next to the earnings reactions. The sample is three events, and the April 2026 d0–21 window is contaminated by the Q1 2026 report on 29 April.
| Analog | Day 0 | d0–1 raw / xSPY / xSector | d0–21 raw / xSPY / xSector | Source/method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 · OpenAI $38B AWS agreement | 2025-11-03 | +2.1% / +3.1% / +2.8% | −4.8% / −5.1% / −4.5% | Motley Fool, 3 Nov 2025 |
| Feb 2026 · OpenAI $50B investment | 2026-02-27 | +0.2% / +0.6% / +1.6% | −3.4% / +4.7% / +6.2% | Business Wire, 27 Feb 2026 |
| Apr 2026 · Anthropic up to $25B investment (d0–21 contaminated by Q1 report) | 2026-04-21 | +2.9% / +2.5% / +3.6% | +6.7% / +2.1% / +8.3% | Reuters via The Star |
Source: ABiS, adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance; sector fund XLY. Day 0 assumes before the open for November 2025, intraday for February 2026 and after the close for April 2026.
- November 2025, OpenAI. A seven-year $38 billion AWS agreement lifted the shares 4.0% to a record close on 3 November, and the stock then fell 1.8% on 4 November as the S&P 500 fell 1.2% (Motley Fool; Ground News).
- February 2026, OpenAI. Amazon announced a $50 billion investment ($15 billion first, $35 billion on conditions) and an expansion of OpenAI's AWS agreement by $100 billion over eight years, and the shares rose 1.0% on the day and fell 0.8% on 2 March (Business Wire; GeekWire).
- April 2026, Anthropic. Amazon committed up to $25 billion ($5 billion immediately) while Anthropic committed more than $100 billion to AWS over ten years, and after-hours coverage cited a gain of about 2% against a first-session close of +0.7% (Reuters via The Star; Stocktwits).
The three announcements gave small gains over d0–1, with a median of +2.5% against the S&P 500, and the d0–21 results range from −5.1% to +4.7%.
| Window | n | Up / down (excess) | Median xSPY | Range xSPY | Median abnormal (beta-adj.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| d0–1 | 3 — thin base rate | 3 / 0 | +2.5% | +0.6% to +3.1% | +2.4% |
| d0–21 | 3 — thin base rate | 2 / 1 | +2.1% | −5.1% to +4.7% | +0.6% |
Source: ABiS, adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance. Three events is a thin base rate.
The market's attention to "circular deal" risk, in which Amazon's investment funds a customer's AWS spending, is visible in coverage (Stocktwits), though the price reactions give little sign of it. If Amazon announces a further large investment in an AI lab with a matching AWS commitment, we would expect a move within about 3% against the S&P 500 over two sessions, based on these three events.
Other catalysts
- The FTC antitrust bench trial is set for 29 March 2027, and a judge declined Amazon's request to delay it to June 2027 in October 2026 (MLex). A separate FTC complaint filed in August 2026 concerns reserve prices in sponsored advertising auctions (Amazon Form 10-Q).
- Mr. Bezos's share-sale plan covers up to 15 million shares through 26 February 2027 (Form 144 coverage, August 2026).
- The Q1 2027 report and the next reports from Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta, which fall within the d0–63 window, have no confirmed dates in our sources.
- The US political shift after the 3 November midterms raised concern over AI regulation and data-center construction on 5 November, and we did not obtain a specific policy proposal.
- Consumer class actions over tariff refunds were consolidated in Seattle on 6 October 2026 as In re Amazon Tariff Litigation, and Amazon has made no public statement on filing for refunds (MLex).
Method and data notes
Windows run in trading days from the close before day 0, which is the first session that could trade on the news, and news after the close moves day 0 to the next session. Excess return is the stock minus the benchmark (SPY or the sector fund). Abnormal return is the stock minus beta times the S&P 500, with beta from about 250 sessions before the event. The sector benchmark is XLY, the house default for consumer discretionary and retail; Amazon is a constituent of that fund and we made no adjustment for its weight. Prices are Yahoo Finance adjusted closes, and price data were available for every window we report except those that had not finished by 9 November 2026.
All eight past report dates and their after-close timing come from the Robinhood earnings feed (verified) and Amazon's releases. The 4 February 2027 date is unverified, and the website range uses 5 February as day 0 until Amazon confirms. The report price is $266.93 (9 November 2026 close, Yahoo Finance), confirmed against the exchange close.
Amazon's house beta is 1.30 (raw two-year weekly beta 1.46, Blume-adjusted), so the contamination threshold is a single session above 7% in an analog's d0–21 window. The scan found one session above that threshold (12 May 2025, +8.1%) and one above 6% (4 November 2026, +6.1%, in the unfinished October 2026 window). We labeled the October 2025 window contaminated by the OpenAI announcement and noted that peer reports on the same nights are part of the reaction.
Gaps: we could not obtain consensus for Q4 revenue, AWS growth or 2027 capital spending, the options-implied move, or short interest. Press coverage of past moves conflicts (the July 2026 gain is quoted from +7% to +15%), so every figure here is computed from closing prices, and where coverage cited after-hours moves that the close did not confirm we say so. Alphabet's decline is quoted at 8% to 11% in after-hours coverage and measured at 12.6% at the close on 29 October. A cause was not obtained for the February 2025 d0–21 weakness, the pre-event decline before February 2026 or the April 2026 d0–21 lag. This is a historical analysis and not financial advice, and the ranges describe past reactions and are not forecasts.
Benchmarks are the S&P 500 and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY); the contamination threshold is 7%.
Appendix: full-precision returns
Abnormal returns, which remove the part of each move that the S&P 500 explains through the stock's beta, show the same split as the excess returns.
| Analog | Beta | Abnormal d0–1 | Abnormal d0–5 | Abnormal d0–21 | Abnormal d0–63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 · Q4 2024 | 1.55 | −2.0% | −5.1% | −4.8% | −8.9% |
| May 2025 · Q1 2025 | 1.31 | −3.2% | +0.1% | −0.6% | −6.2% |
| Jul 2025 · Q2 2025 | 1.34 | −9.4% | −6.0% | −5.5% | −15.3% |
| Oct 2025 · Q3 2025 | 1.33 | +13.3% | +11.4% | +4.9% | +4.8% |
| Feb 2026 · Q4 2025 | 1.33 | −9.5% | −11.5% | −3.7% | +10.3% |
| Apr 2026 · Q1 2026 | 1.52 | +0.0% | −1.2% | −10.7% | −4.8% |
| Jul 2026 · Q2 2026 | 1.43 | +17.5% | +10.5% | +5.4% | −2.2% |
| Oct 2026 · Q3 2026 | 1.44 | +4.0% | +12.8% |
Source: ABiS, adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance; abnormal return is the stock minus beta times the S&P 500 return.
Sources
Amazon.com Q3 2026 release (aboutamazon.com, 29 October 2026); Robinhood earnings feed; Fortune (6 February 2025, 31 July 2025); RTE (7 February 2025); Nasdaq/Zacks on Q1 2025; TipRanks on Q2 2025; Euronews, 31 October 2025; Motley Fool, 3 November 2025; Yahoo Finance, February 2026; LetsDataScience on Moody's; MarketBeat transcript, Q1 2026; fourweekmba on Q2 2026; roic.ai, 3 August 2026; Motley Fool, 5 November 2026; Benzinga, 9 November 2026; aiweekly.co on Alphabet; Sherwood on Meta; 247WallSt on Oracle; Fortune on Microsoft; GeekWire on OpenAI; Reuters via The Star on Anthropic; Investing.com on the bond sale; MLex on the FTC trial; Form 144 coverage of Bezos plan; Barron's (via iTiger) on 12 May 2025; Wall Street Horizon; Gotrade; TickerSpark; Stocktwits; Ground News.