Independent equity research on US-listed companies
We say what would prove us wrong. Then we keep score.
We start from what the share price already assumes and set out what we expect instead. Every call and dated forecast is logged and scored against the S&P 500 in public, including the ones that go wrong.
Latest research
All researchAMD AMD
At $515.21, AMD shares price in about $137 billion of annual free cash flow from fiscal 2032, nearly three times the $47 billion we model for fiscal 2031 after 27% annual revenue growth; we rate the shares Underweight.
Intrinsic value
Expensive
Fair value range
$190–$320
1–3 month direction
Sideways to lower
Action
Underweight
AMD AMD
AMD shares lagged the S&P 500 over the two sessions after 9 of 13 comparable earnings reports, with a median excess return of −12.0% over the following month. The next report, expected 2 February 2027, follows a 38% fall and 27% rebound in five weeks.
Primary catalyst
Q4 2026 results
Past events
13
d0–1 vs SPY, median
−5.3%
d0–21 vs SPY, median
−12.0%
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JPM Q4 2026 adjusted EPSJPM 2027 NII ex-Markets guideJPM 2027 expense guideJPM 2027 card net charge-off guideJPM CET1 standardized, Q4 2026Fri 15
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AMD Q4 2026 revenueAMD Q4 2026 gross margin (quarterly, non-GAAP)AMD Q1 2027 revenue guide midpointAMD Q4 2026 free cash flow marginAMD Q4 warrant remeasurementThu 4
AMZN Q4 2026 net sales (guide $240–247B)AMZN Q4 2026 AWS revenue (Q4 2025 base $35.6B)AMZN Q4 2026 operating income (guide $28.5–33.5B)AMZN 2027 capital spending guideFri 5
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