AMD AMD
At $515.21, AMD shares price in about $137 billion of annual free cash flow from fiscal 2032, nearly three times the $47 billion we model for fiscal 2031 after 27% annual revenue growth; we rate the shares Underweight.
The call is logged at the 11 November 2026 close of $552.90. No later close exists yet, so there is nothing to measure. Scoring starts after the next close.
AMD against the S&P 500 since the call
Both lines start at 0% at the close on the day the report was published. A Underweight, holders reduce call is scored as the S&P 500 minus the stock: what holding the index instead would have earned.
What happened and why
The call as published
| Value view | Expensive |
| Fair value range | $190–$320 |
| Price in the report | $515.21 |
| 1–3 month direction | Sideways to lower, very high volatility |
| Action | Underweight, holders reduce |
| Outcome | Open. First check: Nvidia results, 17 Nov 2026 |
Event-study ranges
Each event study publishes a downside, base and upside range for the stock against the S&P 500 before the event. After the window closes we measure what happened from the daily closes and mark the case it landed in. 0 of 2 scored so far.
| Stock | Event and window | Our ranges (vs S&P 500) | What happened | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | AMD Q4 2026 resultsday 0 3 February 2027 · d0–1 | Downside −10% to −25%Base −9% to +4%Upside +5% to +15% | –expected 4 February 2027 | Pending |
| AMD | AMD Q4 2026 resultsday 0 3 February 2027 · d0–21 | Downside −15% to −25%Base −10% to +5%Upside +10% to +30% | –expected 5 March 2027 | Pending |
What happened is the stock's return minus the S&P 500's from the close before day 0 to the close at the end of the window. A range is a scenario, not a forecast; the full scorecard is at /scorecard.md.
Forecasts in this report · 0 of 9 resolved
| Check by | Forecast | Range or direction | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-02-02 | Q4 2026 revenue | $17.0–$17.8B | Open |
| 2027-02-02 | Q4 2026 gross margin (quarterly, non-GAAP) | 54.5–56.0% | Open |
| 2027-02-02 | Q1 2027 revenue guide midpoint | $18.5–$21.5B | Open |
| 2027-02-02 | Q4 2026 free cash flow margin | 5–12% | Open |
| 2027-02-02 | Q4 warrant remeasurement | Gain if AMD closes below $630.63 on 24 Dec 2026, other inputs unchanged | Open |
| 2027-02-03 | Q4 2026 inventory | $12.0–$14.5B | Open |
| 2027-02-12 | AMD vs S&P 500, 63 trading days | Sideways to lower (at most +5%) | Open |
| 2028-02-01 | FY2027 revenue | $80–$92B | Open |
| 2028-02-01 | FY2027 free cash flow | $8–$14B | Open |