Amazon.com AMZN
At $266.93, Amazon shares price in about $323 billion of annual free cash flow from 2032, 1.5 times the $213 billion our base scenario generates in 2031, which we think requires AWS returns on capital above our assumptions; we rate the shares Underweight.
An Avoid works when the stock lags the S&P 500. AMZN is down 1.7% since the call, against up 1.3% for the S&P 500. Measured that way, so far the call is working. That is only 1 trading day of data, far too early to judge.
AMZN against the S&P 500 since the call
Both lines start at 0% at the close on the day the report was published. A Underweight (no new money) call is scored as the S&P 500 minus the stock: what holding the index instead would have earned.
What happened and why
The call as published
| Value view | Expensive |
| Fair value range | $110–190 |
| Price in the report | $266.93 |
| 1–3 month direction | Sideways to lower, high volatility |
| Action | Underweight (no new money) |
| Outcome | Open. First check: Q4 2026 results, 4 Feb 2027 |
Event-study ranges
Each event study publishes a downside, base and upside range for the stock against the S&P 500 before the event. After the window closes we measure what happened from the daily closes and mark the case it landed in. 0 of 2 scored so far.
| Stock | Event and window | Our ranges (vs S&P 500) | What happened | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon Q4 2026 resultsday 0 5 February 2027 · d0–1 | Downside −15% to −5%Base −5% to +5%Upside +5% to +20% | –expected 8 February 2027 | Pending |
| AMZN | Amazon Q4 2026 resultsday 0 5 February 2027 · d0–21 | Downside −20% to −7%Base −7% to +5%Upside +5% to +15% | –expected 9 March 2027 | Pending |
What happened is the stock's return minus the S&P 500's from the close before day 0 to the close at the end of the window. A range is a scenario, not a forecast; the full scorecard is at /scorecard.md.
Forecasts in this report · 0 of 8 resolved
| Check by | Forecast | Range or direction | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-02-04 | Q4 2026 net sales (guide $240–247B) | $242–248B | Open |
| 2027-02-04 | Q4 2026 AWS revenue (Q4 2025 base $35.6B) | $49.5–51.5B, growth 39–45% | Open |
| 2027-02-04 | Q4 2026 operating income (guide $28.5–33.5B) | $30–34B | Open |
| 2027-02-04 | 2027 capital spending guide | At least $260B | Open |
| 2027-02-10 | AMZN against the S&P 500, 63 trading days from 10 Nov 2026 | Sideways to lower (at most +5%) | Open |
| Feb 2027 | Fiscal 2026 cash capital spending (guide about $220B) | $215–225B | Open |
| Feb 2027 | Free cash flow, twelve months to Q4 2026 (Amazon definition) | −$65B to −$45B | Open |
| Feb 2027 | Long-term debt face value at 31 December 2026 | $178–190B | Open |