JPMorgan Chase JPM
At $342.08 the market pays for a 21% return on tangible equity that lasts forever. We expect it to fade from 21.5% to 16% over ten years, which supports $270–335. We would hold what is owned and add nothing.
A Watch means no position and is not scored. JPM is up 0.4% since the call, against up 1.3% for the S&P 500.
JPM against the S&P 500 since the call
Both lines start at 0% at the close on the day the report was published. Watch calls are logged but not scored.
What happened and why
The call as published
| Value view | Fair |
| Fair value range | $270–335 |
| Price in the report | $342.08 |
| 1–3 month direction | Neutral to slightly lower |
| Action | Watch |
| Outcome | Open. First check: Q4 2026 results, 14 Jan 2027 |
Event-study ranges
Each event study publishes a downside, base and upside range for the stock against the S&P 500 before the event. After the window closes we measure what happened from the daily closes and mark the case it landed in. 0 of 2 scored so far.
| Stock | Event and window | Our ranges (vs S&P 500) | What happened | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | JPM Q4 2026 resultsday 0 14 January 2027 · d0–1 | Downside −4% to −5%Base −1.5% to +1.5%Upside +1% to +3% | –expected 15 January 2027 | Pending |
| JPM | JPM Q4 2026 resultsday 0 14 January 2027 · d0–21 | Downside −5% to −12%Base −5% to +5%Upside +6% to +7% | –expected 16 February 2027 | Pending |
What happened is the stock's return minus the S&P 500's from the close before day 0 to the close at the end of the window. A range is a scenario, not a forecast; the full scorecard is at /scorecard.md.
Forecasts in this report · 0 of 7 resolved
| Check by | Forecast | Range or direction | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-14 | Q4 2026 adjusted EPS | $5.70–6.20 | Open |
| 2027-01-14 | 2027 NII ex-Markets guide | $105–110B | Open |
| 2027-01-14 | 2027 expense guide | $111–116B | Open |
| 2027-01-14 | 2027 card net charge-off guide | 3.0–3.6% | Open |
| 2027-01-14 | CET1 standardized, Q4 2026 | 13.5–14.2% | Open |
| 2027-02-11 | JPM vs SPY, 63 sessions from 10 Nov 2026 | −8% to +4% | Open |
| Oct 2027 | Tangible book value per share, Q3 2027 | $119–123 | Open |